Step 0: The basic set-up
Assume that you have, at the beginning of the year, the following simple balance sheet projection in front of you:
This goes along with an even simpler P&L projection:
We can observe the following:
- At the end of 2016/the beginning of 2017, we just have 10 monetary units (MU) of cash paid in as equity.
- In 2017, we start investing at the very beginning of the year. We build a factory for 125 MU. Let us assume that it starts operating immediately.
- The factory is depreciated linearly over 10 years but we expect to use it for another 5 years.
- The investment is financed with a 10 year loan of 125 MU.
- On the loan, we pay an interest of 8% p.a. (=10 MU).
- The revenue (a quantity of 100 units of a product A times a price of 20 MU per unit of product A) is flat over the whole period (assume for the moment a delivery contract).
- Variable cost (per unit) and fixed costs (total) are also given.
Under this given scenario, there is no uncertainty to account for. Let’s drop this assumption in the next step.